Top-Down Workforce Demand from Energy Scenarios - Alternative Demand Scenarios
In all previous analyses, the so-called ‘20% nuclear electricity’ (officially called ‘Delayed CCS’) scenario of the EC Energy Roadmap 2050 was applied to determine the HR requirements. This scenario was selected because it leads to the highest penetration of nuclear energy and will therefore be most demanding for the assessment of HR requirements. However, over the past years, this rather optimistic scenario for nuclear energy demand was often questioned. Therefore, it was decided to study the effect of less demanding alternative scenarios. For consistency, it was decided to extract both alternatives from the same EC Energy Roadmap 2050 report. However, the two alternative scenarios result in completely different shares of nuclear, both significantly less than the reference ‘20% nuclear’ scenario. The first alternative scenario is the so-called ‘energy efficiency’ scenario. Within this scenario, obviously, the emphasis is put on efficient use of energy. The resulting energy demand scenario leads to a relative high penetration of renewables but also still a significant share of nuclear. Within the so-called ‘low nuclear’ scenario, the main assumption is that public acceptance of nuclear is extremely low. This means that new build projects which are in the planning are cancelled.