Top-down workforce demand extrapolation
The EHRO-N team provides the EC with essential data related to supply and demand for nuclear experts based on bottom-up information from the nuclear industry. The current report deals with an alternative approach to derive figures for the demand side information of the nuclear workforce. Complementary to the bottom-up approach taken by the EHRO-N team at JRC-IET, a top-down modeling approach extrapolation of nuclear energy demand scenario’s is followed here in addition to the survey information.
In this top-down modeling approach, well accepted nuclear energy demand data is used to derive the number of nuclear power plants that are in operation and under construction as a function of time from 2010 up to 2050 assuming that the current reactor park will be replaced by generic third generation reactors of 1400 MWe or 1000 MWe. Based on workforce models for operation and construction of nuclear power plants, the model allows a prediction of these respective workforces.